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KILN 210651\nAFDILN\n\nArea Forecast Discussion\nNational Weather Service Wilmington OH\n251 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026\n\n.WHAT HAS CHANGED...\nFlood watch extended through noon.\n\n&&\n\n.KEY MESSAGES...\n1) Additional showers and thunderstorms will move across the area\nthis morning. This may cause locally heavy rain to fall over\nsaturated ground.\n\n2) Cooler weather will prevail through the week. More showers will\noccur Tuesday night into Wednesday.\n\n&&\n\n.DISCUSSION...\nKEY MESSAGE 1) \nLow level jet will push east into the area through daybreak and then\nweaken as the morning progresses. So showers and thunderstorms west\nof the region will continue into the area. Precipitable water remains\n1.8-1.9 inches and the warm cloud depth is around 4 km. So this\nactivity will have the potential to produce more locally heavy rain,\nalthough all indications are that it should be weakening as it moves\ninto/across the region. Nonetheless, with the ground saturated from \nprevious rainfall, felt that it was prudent to extend the flood watch\nthrough noon. \n\nKEY MESSAGE 2)\nCooler airmass will continue to settle across the area today. Short\nwave tracking across the country will deepen and become a closed low\nas it moves through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will amplify\nan inverted surface trough along the western slopes of the\nAppalachians. These features will bring some showers to the area\nTuesday night into Wednesday with the greater chance being in eastern\ncounties. \n\nThe closed low will still be progressive until it gets off the\nAtlantic coast at which point it will meander. This will result in an\nextended dry period for the area during the latter part of the week \ninto the weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal.\n\n&&\n\n.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...\nIFR ceilings will spread across all terminals early in the period.\nShowers and thunderstorms west of the region at the start of the\nperiod will move across the terminals between 10Z and 15Z. There are\nsome indications that ceilings could lift to the MVFR threshold at\nsome locations towards 00Z, although that may only be for a limited \ntime and confidence in improvement is low.\n\nOUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue and may extend into\nThursday morning. Visibility restrictions also possible Tuesday night\nand Wednesday.\n\n&&\n\n.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...\nOH...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-\n     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.\nKY...None.\nIN...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.\n\n&&\n\n$$\n\nDISCUSSION...35\nAVIATION...35","url":"https://api.weather.gov/products/72701caf-3fac-473b-8871-ad56d0a5dff4","office":"KILN"},"issuedAt":"2026-09-21T06:51:00+00:00"}}